Diplomatic Plans Set to be Presented to Moscow Within Days, States Ukraine's President
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist
Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.
Security Guarantees and International Support
“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.
Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”
They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.
Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute
On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.
American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.
Next Steps and Possible Scenarios
It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.
“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.