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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still